This Bitcoin Indicator Shows MASSIVE Influx of Buyers Soon – April Fools Rally?
Posted: April 9, 2020
What's going on, guys, name al-Obaidi here I'm going to be talking about what indicator is showing that we have massive buy pressure that will come into Bitcoin's price action very soon as we start to realize the true effects of this global pandemic.
And as you can see with this Bitcoin chart, we are currently under this Bitcoin death cross right now.
And as we know, a death cross is extremely bearish in traditional markets.
And what's most interesting is this death cross really occurred here on the twenty sixth of March.
And we are currently here at April 1st.
And we have not necessarily seen a major reaction to Bitcoin's price action.
And I'm going to talk about why the fundamentals are more at play here than any of the technicals.
As we saw in April Fools rally today.
You can see we went at this bottom of this channel and this is a bear flag by the if you look at this for our chart, initially we thought we were outside of this bearish channel.
But of course, we are still inside of this bear flag, as we have now confirmed, this support level being the price levels that Bitcoin is now consolidating between.
And as you can see with this gray dotted line, this is the sixty four hundred dollar major support level that was actually the bottom of the December 2019 bottom, which eventually took us above 10000 U.
S.
dollars inside of this macro bullish ascending triangle formation.
And so I want you guys to realize that there is a lot of fundamentals at play here and why I believe we are still going to potentially see some lower levels here soon before seeing the breakout rally that we're expecting as we approach the supply being cut in half.
With the bitcoin halving coming up, don't make fun of me for saying that.
But we're going to be looking at this technical analysis, looking at this bear flag that is in play right now and how we are still in the bottom portion of this bear flag.
And if we stay in this bottom portion, which the resistance is right around that seven thousand level, then we are still in a neutral bearish position for the short term.
Looking at Bitcoin, but of course, as we've talked about over the last few weeks, in the long term, we are extremely bullish with Bitcoin, especially as a piece of pie is going to be getting cut in half soon.
But understand, there's a lot of fundamentals at play.
So we're going to be looking at the hashrate, as you can see, still seeing some very low levels alongside with confirmed transactions per day at these lower levels.
This right here is probably the most bearish fundamental aspect of bitcoin, and it's the fact that it's not necessarily being used as we see this global pandemic cause mass hysteria and fear within these markets.
And then, of course, we've got the crypto fear and greed index here with extreme fear still here, even after a few weeks of being at this level.
And then once again, this indicator that I'm really talking about is pretty much shown here in this chart where we've got record numbers of U.
S.
d.
t on exchanges, which pretty much means that everyone or quote unquote, the wheels are still in the U.
S.
dollar and have yet to deploy the majority of their liquidity and capital into Bitcoin.
And we're going to look at this chart and then look at some analysis and compare what typically happens when we're at these high levels of U.
S.
d.
t on exchanges, which pretty much means that the wheels are still sidelined right now.
And that's why I believe we're still going to be seeing lower levels for Bitcoin.
But of course, there's a lot of technicals at play here and then looking at the total assets of major central banks.
You can see the Fed's continuing to inject liquidity into the market.
That money printer that we've been talking about is still at play.
And I don't expect this to stop.
But what's really interesting on this chart is you can see the Bank of China is starting to go ahead and inject liquidity in their markets as well.
And we talked about that happening as typically the major banks are going to follow what the Federal Bank of the United States is doing as they have done in the past.
And of course, this over the long term is going to cause hyperinflation for the U.
S.
dollar.
And then that's when Bitcoin is really going to come into play as a deflationary asset as it's built to become.
And so, once again, I want to go into this technical analysis and go into some depth first and foremost with you guys, because, of course, we did see this April Fools rally.
But we have to realize that everything above this level right now is showing bearish pressure.
And the reason I think that's happening is because of the fact that the people that did get in to Bitcoin around December of 2000, 19 and cut the bottom are very fearful of their positions with big.
Knowing the fact that traditional equity markets are seeing historic levels of downside and of course we have to realize that we've got this major amount of volume here and that right here is going to cause fear in investors in times like this.
And so realize that there's a lot of fundamentals at play here.
So first and foremost, I want you guys to understand what the bearish case is here for the short term, because I think that this bearish case will play a part here very soon, over the next few days, potentially the next week or so.
And that's the fact that any time we get above the sixty four hundred dollars level, we start to see sell pressure.
We start to consolidate in this zone, as we did here in March of two thousand and twenty here over the whole week of the last week of March, we saw consolidation within the top level of this bear flag.
And then, of course, we finally saw the bears come in and bring pressure to the downside.
But what really worries me about the short term price action for bitcoin is the fact that we're not necessarily seeing major amounts of volume today.
We started to see some positive volume come in, some bullish pressure.
But of course, that was short lived.
And you can see we're back to very low volume.
And so understand that when we look at this four hour chart, we're still seeing very low amounts of volume and we look at what happened in the past for Bitcoin when it bottomed out.
You can see initially we typically see a lot of volume come in when every bottom is created.
You can see this bottom that was created here in November of 2018 from that twenty thousand dollar bitcoin, we saw a lot of volume the same way we see a lot of volume here, but realize the fact that eventually that volume starts to deter and we start to see low amounts of volume where investors are necessarily pretty much sidelined until they have more fundamental confidence in the market.
And then we start to see the liquidity come in and flow, which eventually will take Bitcoin's price levels to new highs.
But of course, right now we're at the level in which we're seeing this descending amount of volume where we're seeing the bears and bulls make their final decision for the short term before we're going to eventually get the ultimatum of what's going to happen to Bitcoin's price action.
So I'm still in the belief that this 200 week moving average, which you can see here with this green dotted line at around fifty six hundred, is going to be the prime area to accumulate bitcoin.
Knowing that in the past, when we look at what happened at the bottom of the 2018 rally, we look at this weekly chart, you can see that was the perfect area to accumulate bitcoin and that was at that 200 week moving average.
And right now we're hovering above that 200 week moving average.
But I don't think that's going to be, you know, the case for much longer.
Now, realize that in this chart that I'm showing you right now, we've got the major macro support levels drawn out and we're still finding support at the top area of this major level.
But I don't believe this will last long just due to the volume, because remember, anything with small volume is typically not a confident indicator of price action and price direction.
We want to see major volume come in before determining that we're going to see a continuation of the trend.
And right now, of course, it's looking like Bitcoin wants to see higher levels, but with low volume, that's a very weak indicator in my opinion.
And so I think the major realization that we're getting from this price action is the fact that Bitcoin likes to consolidate between the six and that seven thousand dollar level.
But if we see any sort of downside in equity markets, then I believe it's going to cause Bitcoin's price action to also follow the direction of equity markets.
And right now, over the last few days, we've seen positive gains for the equity markets.
We haven't seen much red days.
It's been a while since we've seen over a thousand point drop in the Dow.
But of course, that will most likely change year very soon as lockdowns get more stricter in the United States and in other countries.
And of course, understanding the fundamentals here is extremely important, because once we start to see any sort of price action to the downside in equity markets, I think Bitcoin's price is extremely fragile right now and it could easily break down from this bear fly.
And we wanted to break out of this bear flag.
As a matter of fact, I would rather see Bitcoin not go to these higher levels in this bear flag before seeing this break, because, of course, that's going to cause even a longer duration of time before we get the ultimatum of where Bitcoin wants to go, because if we start to break above that 7000 other level.
We still are in this bear flag, and so we don't want to see that price action upside.
I'd rather see the price action to the downside.
And for us to break this bearish pattern before assuming that we can start to establish long term interest for Bitcoin, for the bullish rally that we're expecting as we approach the supply being cut in half and so realize that 200 week moving average at fifty six.
It's still my prime entry for bitcoin.
But even with that, depending on how equity markets start to see price action, that could even break and we could possibly go back down to the support level of this ascending triangle and retest that forty six hundred dollar area.
And I think that's that's very possible based upon the fear that we're still seeing in equity markets.
And so realize at this level for Bitcoin, I don't see any sort of reason to establish long term entries at the higher areas here above 60, 400, just because of the fact that we're still in a bear flight.
And that has to play out before we can assume this bullish rally is coming in.
But we do have some good news outside of that.
I'm going to be taking some questions from our audience.
I see Daniel on Twitter.
Jim dacko is on our livestream from YouTube.
Told Abundances, what the F where is fifty six hundred BTC? What do you mean by that? I'd love to hear your guys's thoughts and questions as we continue this video.
But realize with total hashrate at these lower levels, we're still seeing bitcoin miners up a bit fearful from entering back into the mining market.
And that, in my opinion, is not a surprise.
Just knowing the levels of uncertainty with equity markets and now the feds are talking about potentially injecting liquidity into the stock market, which, of course, is going to be complete artificial, you know, manipulation of these major equities.
And we've never seen that happen in the past.
And I think that could be extremely detrimental to equity markets over the long term, but very positive for Bitcoin.
So knowing that we've got these lower levels for transactions per day and hashrate, I'm completely fine with that for now until we start to see more confidence in the market.
And one chart I would be watching, I have a lot of people asking me, hey, name, where do you think is a good short for the Dow? Where do you think is a good entry for the Dow? Where do you think is a good entry for Bitcoin? I believe that it's best to be on the sideline right now until we start to see this CBOE Volatility Index at these more reasonable levels of volatility, because with the volatility at these levels that they're at right now, we're still at the levels we were at in 2008 during the major recession that we saw.
And so realize that with volatility at these levels, we don't necessarily know where price action will lead us in equity markets, which will also affect Bitcoin.
And so there's a high chance that we could see further downside, as we saw in 2008 when volatility was at these levels.
And we don't want to have a volatile equity market when we're trying to correlate Bitcoin's price to equity markets.
And so realize the indicator to watch right now is the VIX here on trading view.
If you guys want to watch this on your own and seeing this volatility starting to go down as a positive thing.
But we want this to start going below that 30 level so we can start to see more reasonable amounts of all the two volatility in equity markets, which is going to show more investor confidence when it comes to injecting liquidity back into equities, commodities, precious metals and of course, bitcoin.
So realize that if this volatility stays high, then that could be very detrimental for the long term when it comes to these markets, because that assumes that we're still going to see very big swings to the downside and upside.
And so realize this is a very important chart to watch here.
And then when we go and look at the crypto in fear and greed index, we're still at this extreme fear level.
And so until we can start to see this go back up, it's still going to be an extremely volatile time for Bitcoin.
So I think that sixty seven thousand our level is going to be a place where we will consolidate over time.
But of course, there's eventually going to be an ultimatum in which we're going to see either lower prices are higher prices.
In my assumption, in the short term, we are neutral, bearish.
And so there's a high possibility for these lower entry levels.
And so I think one of the biggest confirmations of my assumption is knowing the fact that we're still seeing these record numbers of U.
S.
d.
t on exchanges, which pretty much means that the real liquidity from the whales have yet to come into the market.
And when we look at what happened here in July of 2019, where we reached this peak of U.
S.
d.
t on exchanges, you can see with Bitcoin's price.
SKAction in July of 2019.
That was the exact area where we found a top.
You can see in July of 2019 is where we topped out and then we down trended for almost six months following the fact that we saw record numbers of us d.
t on the sideline on exchanges.
And then once we start to see that level go to the lower areas where we you can see here bottomed out pretty much here in October of 2019.
That's eventually where in October of 2019, we were close to the bottom here of this.
This downtrend.
This was the October area.
And then we eventually saw that liquidity injected back into the markets and then bringing price levels for bitcoin above ten thousand.
And so realize that we're seeing record numbers of USD T on the sideline.
And this is the liquidity crisis that we've been talking about over the last few days and understand that with that liquidity crisis and bitcoin at these lower levels, there's a high chance that we're going to see price action on the downside before we start to see whales confidently inject their liquidity back into Bitcoin.
So I'm still expecting this push back down before we see a push up, as we saw here in July of 2019 when the US d.
t on exchanges.
We're at these record levels at the time.
Of course, right now we're way and above that, which shows us that there's a lot of bullish potential for bitcoin, but it's just not the right time to inturn my opinion when it comes to your large capital allocations because of the fact that we want to follow the major wallets in the whales.
And right now you can see here we've got record numbers of USD T here on the sideline, over a billion dollars on the sidelines.
And so when that liquidity starts to flow back into bitcoin is when I believe it be more safe for us to assume the capital allocations of whales are going back into Bitcoin and we can start entering in safer positions and follow where the major wallets are coming.
And so the same way we saw this price action to the downside before a push to the upside.
I think we're going to see that similar trend here before we go closer to the apex of this ascending triangle where of course, we're going to have that ultimatum and see will Bitcoin prove itself as a storage of value and a hedge against the traditional markets, especially as the feds are continuously printing money on a daily basis.
And so Börse life channels here is at a location here means using your ears to pick up.
Sound interesting? Let's see, tolike says hi, I'm waiting for tooted weekly moving average for entry.
I think that's a great place to look for an entry when it comes to bitcoin just because of the fact that in the past it's acted as the bottom for the 2018 rally and we've not necessarily seen bitcoin go below that tune in a week moving average many times.
And of course this big push down took us below this ascending triangle in it broke that support, but we were quickly bought back up by the bulls.
And so I think that's a very positive, you know, a positive thought when understanding that that tuna moving average in anything below it is a great accumulation zone for Bitcoin, but anything above it is a lot more risky.
And so I think the real you know, the real thing to watch here is the fact that there's going to be a ton of opportunities when it comes to leverage trading in this consolidation zone, as we've really been here since the beginning of March.
We've been at this level, we've been going back and forth here.
And so until we can start to see more confidence and less volatility in equity markets, I don't believe that's going to stop.
I think we really need to start, you know, getting more confidence with what's happening with this global pandemic before realizing that the markets have finally bottomed out.
And so, you know, Johnson and Johnson recently got a bill signed to them by the government up for working on the Cauvin 19 vaccine.
So that's a very positive thing there.
Of course, that has yet to come.
And even as that starts clinical trials, trials, it's going to take some time for us to see that come into the marketplace as vaccines usually take a year before they are out to the public.
And, you know, unfortunately, it might be the case that we have to wait until a vaccine is confirmed for us to start to realize the bottom of these markets, because we've already seen a brutal couple of weeks when it comes to equity markets and even Bitcoin.
And so understanding that the fundamentals are more powerful right now than the technicals is important because of the fact that a lot of people are looking at technicals.
And saying to themselves, OK, well, we've potentially got an inverse head and shoulders forming here.
That's a breakout pattern.
But I don't believe it's the time to look at technicals more than it's important to look at fundamentals.
And the real fundamental factor that's affecting price action in all markets right now is this global pandemic and the Cauvin 19 crisis.
And so understanding that, I think it's important to realize that we're going to continuously see liquidity flow in and out of these major assets as we start to get more confidence from investors.
You can see with gold back at these support levels below sixteen hundred.
What that shows me is we're starting to see liquidity come outside of gold, injecting it back into markets.
But very quickly, these investors are coming back into gold.
And so I think this volatility is going to continue.
And as long as that continues, we're not going to see or confirm a bottom in any of these markets.
And so I would be very, very careful when it comes to assuming that the bottom is already in because of the fact that we just don't know how this virus is going to play out over the long term.
And of course, there've been projekt projections of over one thousand plus deaths in the U.
S.
, potentially up to two hundred and forty thousand deaths.
And so until we start to see that play out, I think things are going to be extremely volatile here.
So watching that VIX is very important here.
We look at U.
S.
oil, you can see starting to see new lows and we're at levels that we were at back in 2002 were even below where we were at in 2008.
And so knowing that U.
S.
oil is seeing such a hard hit from this virus, we have to be precautious in each and every one of these markets.
And so things are becoming very, very risky into the next few weeks.
But realize that that's a big opportunity when it comes to leverage trading.
And that's also a big opportunity for the long term as we start to see how this is really going to play out for our economy.
So I didn't really want to go into too much of the headlines today.
I wanted to focus more in on the fact that the fundamentals here are more in control than the technicals.
And I think it's important to realize that.
And then I'm going to pull out this chart here that I've had here over the last few weeks.
And these are showing the major macro and micro levels for Bitcoin.
So I think this is important to keep in mind.
And you can see we're at this higher level here.
We're pretty much we saw a consolidation from the 23rd of March all the way up to the twenty seventh before we saw that big push down below 6000.
And so for us to be at this level, I think we're going to see more and more sellers come in because the uncertainty is still high and that's going to keep the volatility of Bitcoin and all of these assets very, very volatile.
And so realize that things are still very premature.
And of course, we initially broke out of this original bear flag, but we're now back into a bear flag here that is forming across this up support level where we saw that April Fools rally start here at around sixty one hundred.
And so we know the bulls are in the market.
But as you can see with the volume, it's obviously not significant enough right now to call a bottom or to say that this bullish trend is just going to continue.
And so until we can start to see major volume, you know, what I'd really like to see is some buy volume.
That compares to these us these these big sell pushes.
And so, you know, we've yet to see by volume match this type of sell pressure.
And so until we start to see major by volume come in, we just can't assume that price action is going to continue to the upside, as we saw in 2018 where we did see an initial amount of high volume, but then it eventually leveled out at the lower levels, allowing bitcoin to consolidate at the bottom before we start to see investor confidence bring price action back up to the upside.
And so we want to see that bottom form.
And I don't think that's just going to happen at these higher levels.
I think we're going to see the lower levels come back into play, and that's when people are going to have the chance to read cumulate bitcoin.
And I think that's what we're going to start to see, that billion dollars on the sidelines start to come back into Bitcoin.
So this chart is extremely important.
If you guys want to keep track of this chart, just type in stable coin supply ratio on Google and you'll be able to have this chart to watch.
But until this starts to go down, I don't believe we're going to be able to assume a bottom is in just yet.
And so Frankie says Trump might buy all the oil and pass out wallets to leverage the coins.
Yeah, they actually took that off the bill.
They did initially have on the stimulus bill that they potentially could issue wallets to every.
Jerrycan to give them their stimulus checks.
But that got taken off the bill.
I think a big part of that was the fact that they realized if they gave every single American access to a digital wallet, that could really jeopardize the U.
S.
dollar when Bitcoin is also on a digital wallet.
And it could really sharpen that learning curve for people.
And so I think that the government is aware of Bitcoin and they're being very precautious with making it the focus for people.
And so I think that's why they're sticking to their traditional roots of just mailing checks out.
And so I think that's important.
Thank you for mentioning that.
Frankie Naum says if BTC drops, how low can it go? What are the support levels? Great question.
I believe that the support levels that we need to watch is the major support level from this macro ascending triangle here.
And so that is pretty much at this level here, right around that forty six hundred dollar area, I don't believe will go back below 4000 because when we saw the push down below 4000, let me remove some of this so that you guys can see this a little bit clearer.
But we see the the one hour chart here.
You can see when we bottomed out and we saw those derivative markets shut down as price levels were just crashing.
You can see we saw major by volume come in and buy up this dip, as you can see down here.
Let me actually pull up the four hour.
You'll get a better view of that because we can't even see it from this chart here.
So if you look at this four hour chart, you can see here as soon as we broke below that ascending triangle support down here, you can see we saw major volume come in where buyers came in and bought up that dip.
And so knowing that there's that much buy pressure down here, I don't believe we'll go back below this ascending support level.
I think that the major bottom could potentially be that forty six hundred our area, but I don't even think that could really come into play unless we really see the equity markets potentially form a new bottom.
And so understand, what also happened when Bitcoin went down to these levels is equity markets eventually did see new bottoms and Bitcoin decoupled with equity markets at that point because I think people realized that Bitcoin was becoming extremely oversold.
And so that's why I'm watching this 200 week moving average.
And I think that that's a fear area to enter into Bitcoin, knowing that it's at the bottom of this is sending support level.
It's not necessarily at the support, but I personally don't want to see Bitcoin back below 5000 because that could really give Beres the opportunity to take back control.
And so I think that 200 week moving average is just enough to break out of this bearish channel.
And then, of course, from Meher, we can start to see what's going on with equity markets.
If volatility has finally stabilized and at that point we can assume a bottle of a bottom is potentially in and that bitcoin can really start to see the billions of dollars on the sidelines come back into the market and then taking price action back to the upside to eventually break out of this major triangle as we cut the supply in half in less than 50 days.
And so I think that's extremely important there.
Let's see, the Syphon Coffee says BTC will price in them STEMI checks.
Yeah.
You know, it's interesting because if the feds do start injecting liquidity into equity markets, what could eventually happen for bitcoin is the wheels.
Instead of obviously investing in equity markets, they put their money back into bitcoin.
And the same way that the feds are printing money and artificially propping up the stock markets, then we can actually see Bitcoin follow the stock markets.
And then I think when investors realize that the equity markets are being artificially pumped while bitcoin is being naturally pumped because it's a deflationary asset by nature, I think that that could really play into part when bitcoin really starts to see Bull Rally come in and seeing Bitcoin's new highs potentially to one hundred thousand as we've talked about in the past, especially as the supply gets cut in half.
And so I think it's a I think it's a very scary time when it comes to traditional markets.
But I think it's a very good time for Bitcoin.
I think that, you know, all of this mayhem is just making the case stronger for Bitcoin as a deflationary asset and a storage of wealth in comparison to these other assets that are seeing artificial liquidity come in when the feds are just printing money into them.
And so, you know, at the end of the day, all major banks are going to follow the Federal Bank of the United States and print money and inject it into the economy.
And so it's not just a problem in the United States.
It's a global issue.
And that's where Bitcoin comes in as a global asset that any investor can seek to preserve their wealth in, especially with its deflationary properties.
I think it's going to be the asset of choice when we.
Finally, get the ultimatum of all these markets going to see more downside or have they finally bottomed out? Have they leveled out? And so I think that's really gonna be the determining factor here.
I personally believe that if liquidity does get injected into the stock markets, that, of course, the feds might not allow the equity markets to see new levels of, you know, a new lower levels.
And in that case, Bitcoin's bullish case at that 20 week moving average is more verified, because if we don't see lower levels with equity markets, then there's a very literal, very low chance that Bitcoin could see lower levels at its current price level.
And so I hope that answers your question there.
Jay Francis is 5K.
I think that's very possible here.
Brandis's I can't find a stable supply ratio.
Page you had.
Well, I'll go ahead and post that in the discord for those who are discord.
Once we're done with this livestream, I want to take too much of your guys's Wednesday night though.
I just wanted to really emphasize the fact that the fundamentals here are more at play than any of the technicals.
And so expect extreme volatility not just in Bitcoin, but in all markets right now as we start to really get into the the peak levels of the hysteria caused by this global pandemic.
Mud drawn says why did Bitcoin go up right now? I really think that this beer flag came into play here and I'm glad that we saw this push to the upside because it confirmed that the beer flag is still in play.
And, you know, until we get out of this beer flag, I'm going to have to say that in the short term, we're still going to have to stay bearish.
You know, any time we see a major push to the downside, like we saw here in the start of March when equity markets took their plunge, we have to assume that there's going to be a continued pressure of sell volume and a continued bearish pressure and presence.
And so typically what happens when you see major downside is we slowly creep up in a bear flat.
That's why they call this a bear fly before seeing another push, the downside.
And then, of course, with our assumption from there, we can see that pushed back to the upside.
And so I hope that clears up that question there.
rumbaugh Rowe says, Do you think getting a position on the market, on other stocks is a good thought right now? I would wait until the VIX stabilizes because realize that we don't know if the bottom is in yet.
And until we can confirm that, it's hard to say that it's a good time to get back into equity markets.
Now, if you're a long term investor, I think that we're closer to the bottom than we are to the top and that it's a good time to dollar cost average, of course, with lower capital at higher levels right now.
But the majority of your capital should really be saved for a good push down.
And I'm not going to be surprised if we see another 1000 or 2000 point drop in the Dow Jones.
And if that happens, Bitcoin is almost certainly going to break down from this bear flag.
And I think that the optimal entry here is going to be that 200 week moving average.
I don't see a reason why that's not going to play a significant role here, because we only stayed at these levels below that 200 week moving average for about a week.
And I will confidently say that this was most likely a accumulation zone for Bitcoin.
And so for us to get back down to those levels, I think would be a little bit more dangerous because then Bitcoin can potentially test that support of forty six hundred with this ascending support from the macro.
And that could potentially give bears the opportunity to take back control.
We don't want that.
And so I think the bulls will really come into play.
We're already seeing bullish pressure.
We're seeing buyers come in.
You can obviously tell, you know, there are people coming in a dollar cost averaging positions into bitcoin.
But we look at this chart here, the majority of liquidity is on the sidelines, as you can see, with USD t surpassing over a billion right now on exchanges.
And that's levels that we've never seen before.
And so knowing that there's so much U.
S.
d.
t on the sidelines, I can only assume that's going to flow into Bitcoin as we start to confirm a bottom with equity markets.
So Rhumba says, wow.
Understood.
Thanks for the answer.
You're very welcome.
Cole says not to speak from.
Recall him saying that the fundamentals were more important, but that T-A was irrelevant.
Yes, fundamentals right now are more important because realize that everything that's happening right now in all markets is a direct correlation and cause of the Cauvin 19 crises.
And so knowing that the Koven 19 is the cause here, we have to watch the developments in that more than we have to watch anything else when we have to, you know, realize that the bottom is in or not.
And so, you know, if things get worse, we can certainly see lower levels and equity markets and that could take Bitcoin back down to that forty six hundred dollar level.
But any time Bitcoin went below that 200 moving average, it really started to decouple from equity markets.
And even when equity markets saw further lows, Bitcoin did not see further lows.
And so that's why I have confidence in this area below the 200 moving average.
But specifically that tune in, Rick, moving average as that potential entry.
I think that there could possibly be a Wyk below that 200 week moving average below fifty six hundred.
But I don't think we'll see major sell pressure at that level.
I think we'll see a lot more buyer pressure as we've confirmed with the volume.
As soon as we went below that ascending triangle, we saw massive buyers come in, and so that confirms that fact.
Mr.
Mistery says name is I know you're not a fan of the bailout, but what would you have done to keep millions of people from becoming home less? I'm not going say I'm not a fan of the bailout.
Realize that the bailout is fine.
The Fed's printing money in a certain way.
It's okay, because what ends up happening is other banks follow.
As you can see with this chart, with the central banks following the Fed's.
I don't think it's a big deal to money, because if other.
If other banks are printing money and following the feds and the Central Bank of the United States, then of course, that kind of you know, it diminishes the hyper inflationary effect, but it doesn't totally diminish it.
And so realize that there's pros and cons when it comes to printing money and injecting it into the economy.
But then on the day, I don't see that as a negative thing more than I see it as a fault of the traditional financial system.
And so, you know, realize that when Bitcoin was created, it was in 2008 when we initially saw the feds go from under a trillion dollars in assets to over 2 trillion dollars in assets.
And somebody realized that, OK, well, if that's the solution to bad times and recessions, I don't think that's a long term solution.
I think that's a very big gap in the traditional financial system.
And so I think it's more of a natural fault of the traditional financial system and it's less of a intentional fault of these central banks.
And so that's why Bitcoin is really, you know, in play here is the fact that's a deflationary asset by nature.
And it's a lot better of a solution of a storage of wealth than any sort of currency when the currencies can just be printed out of thin air.
And so I hope that answers your question.
You know, of course, I.
All of my empathy goes towards those that are being affected by this mass crisis.
But at the end of the day, we have to inform other people of what's actually happening.
I think the most important thing you can do right now is understand and inform others about what's happening right now, because for the people that are in the bottom 50 percent, those are the ones affected the most.
They say 40.
They say 80 percent of Americans have less than 400 dollars in their emergency savings.
And so those are the ones that don't own assets.
Those are the ones that are most affected by hyper inflation.
And so the ones that own assets, they're in a lot better of a position.
But that wealth gap being widened over and over again by the Fed's printing more and more money.
It's a big fall of the traditional financial system.
And so I think that's why Bitcoin comes into play.
It's a hype.
It's a deflationary asset by nature.
And so I think that's important room bureaus to smash the likes, guys.
I do appreciate that.
Thank you.
As if you appreciate the content.
Feel free to hit that like on Mr.
Mistresses.
Thanks for answering.
What would a President Naim have done? You know, I think that they're doing the best that they can with what they've got.
But at the end of the day, it's more of an issue with the system and it's not an issue with those that are in control.
Of the system.
And so it's just realizing that Bitcoin is the true solution here, it's always been the true solution.
And it's, you know, it's going to get cut in supply in less than 50 days.
The supply is going to get cut in half.
And I think that when people realize that when people see that click, I think that we'll start to see a lot more conference in Bitcoin metaphor.
I'm going to pull up a chart for you here, which I think is very poor.
I've shown this in the past.
But when you look at Google Trends and you look at what happened in 2018 when we saw Bitcoin go over 20000 U.
S.
dollars, you can see it could have been predicted by looking at the interest of the Bitcoin halving on Google, because prior to that rally here in 2016, we saw major interest in what the bitcoin hoving is.
And so investors that were interested in bitcoin at the time before Bitcoin surpassed 3000 for 5000 U.
S.
dollars.
It was sitting between a thousand to sixteen hundred dollars.
It was going back and forth at that range.
Those are the investors that really took advantage of that bitcoin boron in 2017.
And we're starting to see that happen again, where we're starting to see more interest in what this bitcoin hoving is.
And I think that it's a very important aspect and one of the most important aspects of Bitcoin.
Being the fact that it allows Bitcoin to be deflationary in nature when the supply continuously gets cut in half.
This isn't going to be the only hole.
I mean, even after this one, there's going to be another one in four to five years and so realize that it's import.
Unless all of the bitcoin is mined by then.
Right.
So it's deflationary in nature, it's limited in quantity.
And so the more people realize the fundamentals of bitcoin are a lot more sound and the fundamentals of our traditional currencies.
I think that's when we're going to be more optimistic about Bitcoin going past hundred thousand.
And I think that's a major reason why it's such a possibility.
And so if Bitcoin doesn't prove itself in times like this, then I don't know if we can assume that bitcoin is a storage of value anymore.
I think we'll have to redefine the use case of bitcoin if it doesn't act in its purpose over the next few months.
I think we really couldn't give bitcoin another year to prove itself at this point if it doesn't.
I think that we have to re calibrate what we see bitcoin as.
I think we have to, you know, read you.
We have to redefine the purpose of bitcoin, but I don't think it will let us down as it never has in the past.
And so I'm very confident that over the long term.
So Jong says, I smashed the lights.
Thank you so much.
It's awesome, guys.
Well, Michael says, what's a stop loss for short positions? I'd say around 7000.
If you're not overleverage right now, you know, it's going to be really tough for Bitcoin to break that 7000 level.
You know, we saw a major, major push back here.
We saw a major push back here eventually double top.
And then right now, you can see that 7000 is acting as the ultimatum for this channel.
And so I think the real bearish scenario here is for us to stay below that 7000 our level and then retest the support of this channel, finally break it.
And then, of course, that takes us out of this bearish channel.
And then for Mir, we can assume that that tutelary moving average is going to hold.
And unless equity markets get brutalized by the fundamentals of this Cauvin 19 crisis, then there is a potential we could see a push back down.
But I don't think they'll happen.
I think that regardless, we'll see a push back up from this area, because when Bitcoin was at this level below that terrific moving average, it decoupled from stockmarkets.
It was like, yeah.
Okay.
Whoa.
Stock markets are really seeing a brutal beating here.
I'm going to decouple myself.
And that's kind of a bitcoin acted when we saw a new low form in the S&P and then bitcoin did it decide to create a new low.
But now it's back to a correlated you know, it's back to correlating with stock markets.
And it was actually correlated with gold earlier today.
And so understanding that the correlation is still there, but it's not definite is important.
If you guys watch the video I posted about a year ago, I said Bitcoin is one of the only assets that isn't just the storage of value, but it's also a vault volatile asset.
And it's one it's one of a kind.
There's no such thing as a storage value in volatile asset.
It's either a volatile asset or storage of value, right? Storage value being precious metals, for example, a gold and a Volta asset being an index for the Dow Jones, for example.
Right.
But Bitcoin is a combination of both.
It's a hybrid.
And so it's so unique in nature.
It's deflationary by nature.
And I think it's the solution to the economic issues that we're seeing here when we do head into a crisis like we are right now and as we did in 2008.
So Boss says, but is it really the mining's expensive and harm for the environment? And there's way more people than BTC supply could lead to, more have not.
Well, number one, the mining aspect of it.
Yeah, it might be detrimental to the environment, but realize that when you mine gold and silver, it's even worse for the environment.
Right? Even printing currencies are worse.
Paper currencies are worse than for the environment.
So I think it's a good it's a you know, and think about this with Tesla creating these mega pacts around the world.
Bitcoin can be mined eventually just through solar power.
Right.
So I think that's more of an issue with the energy industry more than it is for Bitcoin.
And then when it comes to there's more people than the BTC supply.
It's not like everyone has to have one bitcoin.
It's fractionalized.
So it can be fractionalized to a point 0 0 0 1 bitcoin.
Right.
And so the amount of people versus amount of bitcoin really doesn't matter.
And that's just the fundamental rule.
So anyways, I hope you guys enjoyed this.
We don't wanna go too long.
We're over 40 minutes already.
I just wanted to make sure you guys realized on this video that the fundamentals you're more at play than the technicals, but the technicals are even showing this bear flag is still in play and that there is that big potential for that push down.
The equity markets are still extremely volatile.
When we look at the VIX, the CBOE Volatility Index, and realizing that there's over a billion dollars on the sidelines for exchanges.
What's the reason to.
A long term position at this level versus a lower level where I think the real bulls are going to come in.
And so I hope you guys enjoyed this video.
Thank you so much.
I think that covers everything that I wanted to talk about.
I will post that chart in the discord for those of you that want to see that supply chart and track that.
If anything, we'll track that over the next few videos.
I'll see you guys on Friday.
I'm excited to see how things mature from here, but realize that as long as you're under that $7000 level and we're above that sixty four hundred dollar level, things are going to be very volatile if we break below sixty four hundred.
That gives the bears more pressure.
And then of course from there we have to see that support level break.
We've already tested it twice and so once that breaks that bear flag is out of play and then we can eventually see where we're going to bottom out here, whether it's that 20 week moving average in that forty six hundred dollar area.
I just don't think we'll see any lower levels based on the volume that we saw down here when bulls really came in and bought this up when it went below.
That is sending support levels.
So thank you guys so much for watching.
Boss Lefsetz says Krypto Market Cap website.
It's funny, coin market cap might be acquired by buying and soon I saw that headline.
That's gonna be interesting, right? In exchange.
Owning the number one reference guide for investors in the crypto market.
That's going gonna be interesting, huh? So thank you guys so much for watching.
And I will see you guys on Friday.
So we'll link up in the discord for those of you guys in there and appreciate you guys tuning in today.