How Big Data Can Predict the Next Bestseller |
Posted: December 8, 2017 |
Every industry in the world of today is starting to channel their power into big data to be competitive in the global economy. The industry of book publishing has not been left behind. Publishing, just like the music industry thrives on big-ticket hits. However, the art of predicting best sellers is not a walk in the park. The technique has remained to be an enigmatic art that only the most prominent publishers and the sharpest critics have got it right. The province of educated guesses and gut instinct have served the publishing industry well. Most first time authors, however, will most likely get it wrong. Publishers from all over the world are looking for all kinds of data in search of the correct formula to evaluate a book’s potential to become a bestseller. Publishing companies can now target their consumers in a more improved way thanks to informed marketing decisions. How to deal with the problem Scientists and computer programmers have developed an algorithm to identify bestselling books with an 80% success rate. The program known as Bestseller-o-meter has become the subject of discussion with publishers experimenting its viability. The algorithm is based on tracking the record of bestsellers by the New York Times that have been applied for three decades retrospectively to the novels. How the Algorithm works The bestseller-o-meter works by identifying the characteristics of bestselling novels at a scale. This can be done by interrogating a significant array of literature which can be more than 20,000 novels. The project gives a check that is driven by big data to receive hints and wisdom about the secrets behind bestselling fiction novels. However, the program creates fears that shortly, publishing firms will rely on this technology solely to help them bypass traditional methods of identifying a potential bestseller. The dawn of the big data algorithm idea When Archer and Jockers developed the algorithm, it was not the first attempt to use big data to select prospective bestsellers. A startup in Berlin, Germany was known as Inkitt was behind a program known as the ’first novel selected by an algorithm.' The algorithm would track the reader’s reviews and responses that were posted on their website to identify bestsellers. For instance the website may have multiple reviews for one of the Odyssey characters such as Telemachus and the algorithm will analyze the reviews to determine whether the novel is a bestseller or not. London’s Jellybooks was founded in 2011 and measures the engagement of readers in the production cycle of literary content just before it is published. Jellybooks utilizes software that the readers can download to access the novel title in advance. However, the bestseller-o-meter stands out by its ability to integrate the literary scholarship to the power of computers. The bestseller program has the considerations that were involved in training the machine documented. The considerations enables the device to unpack and read the small decisions at the level of syntax and diction that are required in identifying the bestselling novel. The algorithm represents interpretive and analytical choices when one decides to read a fiction novel closely. It looks for features such as word usage patterns, repetitions, thematic emphasis, and allusions. The elements of the algorithm There are a few elements that the algorithm uses which are plainspoken, prose, often common, declarative verbs and an authoritative voice which helps in the connotation of take-charge characters that are action-oriented. Archer and Jockers also highlighted that something called the narrative “cohesion” was one of the lesser elements that contributed to bestselling. The secret to bestselling according to the program Discoveries were made from the algorithm that sex does not usually sell. It is refined to a tiny portion of the bestselling fiction. For example, if you look at the novel Fifty Shades of Grey, the book has numerous erotic scenes and a twisted plot, and ideally, it would not have become a bestseller. However, Archer and Jockers found out that the main subject and theme of the novel was human closeness. Human closeness is a common denominator when it comes to almost all bestsellers. Fifty Shades of Grey revolved around intimacy between different characters which helped it to become a bestseller.
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